Prognostic Value of Three Rapid Scoring Scales and Combined Score for the Assessment of Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (preprint)

Background: Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with high mortality, whereas mild cases generally have a good prognosis. Therefore, the rapid assessment and timely classification of patients with COVID-19-related pneumonia are very important. However, no scoring system has been designated for the rapid assessment and prognosis of patients with COVID-19. Such a system is urgently needed. Objective: To explore the factors affecting mortality in patients with COVID-19 and to verify if the predictive value of the three rapid scoring scales [the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS) and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS)] that are commonly used in emergency departments can also be used for the prognostication of COVID-19 patients. Methods: The study included adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China from February 7 to March 7, 2020. Kaplan–Meier and Cox survival analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with COVID-19-related death. C-index analysis was used to evaluate the abilities of the three scoring scales and their combined score to predict the prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Results: Older age, decreased lymphocyte count, increased respiration frequency, and low blood oxygen saturation level were identified as independent risk factors for mortality among patients with COVID-19. The Cox regression analysis demonstrated that MEWS, RAPS, and REMS had a statistically significant ability to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients (P < 0.05). Stats the C-index of MEWS, RAPS, REMS, and the combined score resulted 0.7,0.66, 0.82, and 0.83 respectively. Conclusion: Patients with an old age, increased respiration frequency, low blood oxygen saturation level, and decreased lymphocyte count are at a high risk of COVID-19-related mortality. Moreover, our analysis revealed that the REMS had a better prognostic ability than the MEWS and RAPS when applied to COVID-19 patients. Our findings suggest that the REMS can be used as a rapid scoring tool for the early assessment of COVID-19 severity.

Immune phenotyping based on neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and IgG predicts disease severity and outcome for patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: A recently emerging respiratory disease named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has quickly spread across the world. This disease is initiated by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and uncontrolled cytokine storm, but it remains unknown as to whether a robust antibody response is related to clinical deterioration and poor outcome in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients. Methods: Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM antibodies were determined by chemiluminescence analysis (CLIA) in COVID-19 patients from a single center in Wuhan. Median IgG and IgM levels in acute and convalescent-phase sera (within 35 days) for all included patients were calculated and compared among severe and nonsevere patients. Immune response phenotyping based on late IgG levels and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was characterized to stratify patients with different disease severities and outcome. Laboratory parameters in patients with different immune response phenotypes and disease severities were analyzed. Findings: A total of 222 patients were included in this study. IgG was first detected on day 4 of illness, and its peak levels occurred in the fourth week. Severe cases were more frequently found in patients with high IgG levels, compared to those who with low IgG levels (51.8% versus 32.3%; p=0.008). Severity rates for patients with NLRhiIgGhi, NLRhiIgGlo, NLRloIgGhi, and NLRloIgGlo phenotype was 72.3%, 48.5%, 33.3%, and 15.6%, respectively (p<0.0001). Furthermore, severe patients with NLRhiIgGhi, NLRhiIgGlo had higher proinflammatory cytokines levels including IL-2, IL-6 and IL-10, and decreased CD4+ T cell count compared to those with NLRloIgGlo phenotype (p<0.05). Recovery rate for severe patients with NLRhiIgGhi, NLRhiIgGlo, NLRloIgGhi, and NLRloIgGlo phenotype was 58.8% (20/34), 68.8% (11/16), 80.0% (4/5), and 100% (12/12), respectively (p=0.0592). Dead cases only occurred in NLRhiIgGhi and NLRhiIgGlo phenotypes. Interpretation: COVID-19 severity is associated with increased IgG response, and an immune response phenotyping based on late IgG response and NLR could act as a simple complementary tool to discriminate between severe and nonsevere COVID-19 patients, and further predict their clinical outcome.

Clinical characteristics of 82 death cases with COVID-19 (preprint)

Background A recently developing pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 was originated in Wuhan, China, and has quickly spread across the world. We reported the clinical characteristics of 82 death cases with COVID-19 in a single center. Methods Clinical data on 82 death cases laboratory-confirmed as SARS-CoV-2 infection were obtained from a Wuhan local hospital's electronic medical records according to previously designed standardized data collection forms. Findings All patients were local residents of Wuhan, and the great proportion of them were diagnosed as severe illness when admitted. Most of the death cases were male (65.9%). More than half of dead patients were older than 60 years (80.5%) and the median age was 72.5 years. The bulk of death cases had comorbidity (76.8%), including hypertension (56.1%), heart disease (20.7%), diabetes (18.3%), cerebrovascular disease (12.2%), and cancer (7.3%). Respiratory failure remained the leading cause of death (69.5%), following by sepsis syndrome/MOF (28.0%), cardiac failure (14.6%), hemorrhage (6.1%), and renal failure (3.7%). Furthermore, respiratory, cardiac, hemorrhage, hepatic, and renal damage were found in 100%, 89%, 80.5%, 78.0%, and 31.7% of patients, respectively. On the admission, lymphopenia (89.2%), neutrophilia (74.3%), and thrombocytopenia (24.3%) were usually observed. Most patients had a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio of >5 (94.5%), high systemic immune-inflammation index of >500 (89.2%), increased C-reactive protein level (100%), lactate dehydrogenase (93.2%), and D-dimer (97.1%). A high level of IL-6 (>10 pg/ml) was observed in all detected patients. Median time from initial symptom to death was 15 days (IQR 11-20), and a significant association between aspartate aminotransferase (p=0.002), alanine aminotransferase (p=0.037) and time from initial symptom to death were interestingly observed. Conclusion Older males with comorbidities are more likely to develop severe disease, even die from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Respiratory failure is the main cause of COVID-19, but either virus itself or cytokine release storm mediated damage to other organ including cardiac, renal, hepatic, and hemorrhage should be taken seriously as well.